Example market

What will Bitcoin’s price change be over 24 hours?

Oct 10, 2026, 00:00 UTC → Oct 11, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Market rules
Entry opens
Oct 8, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Entry closes / observation starts
Oct 10, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Observation ends
Oct 11, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source
Coinbase BTC-USD hourly candles
Observation rule
Compare the opening prices of the UTC hourly candles at the observation start and end. Percentage change = 100 × (end / start − 1). The ratified scorecard controls payouts.
Oracle
None; position holders retain voting power. Holders can change their voting address while entries are open.
Ranges
19 equal ranges of 1%, plus two overflow ranges.
Payout
The ratified scorecard.

Built on Defifa, see engine code

Your view

Your probability distributionBars show NFT share divided by range width; the line shows curve density. Focus or tap a range for its exact count and share. Drag to move or widen the curve. Arrow keys move; Shift and arrow keys change spread.-9.5% to < -8.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)-8.5% to < -7.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)-7.5% to < -6.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)-6.5% to < -5.5%: 1 NFTs (1.00%)-5.5% to < -4.5%: 1 NFTs (1.00%)-4.5% to < -3.5%: 2 NFTs (2.00%)-3.5% to < -2.5%: 5 NFTs (5.00%)-2.5% to < -1.5%: 11 NFTs (11.00%)-1.5% to < -0.5%: 19 NFTs (19.00%)-0.5% to < +0.5%: 22 NFTs (22.00%)+0.5% to < +1.5%: 19 NFTs (19.00%)+1.5% to < +2.5%: 11 NFTs (11.00%)+2.5% to < +3.5%: 5 NFTs (5.00%)+3.5% to < +4.5%: 2 NFTs (2.00%)+4.5% to < +5.5%: 1 NFTs (1.00%)+5.5% to < +6.5%: 1 NFTs (1.00%)+6.5% to < +7.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)+7.5% to < +8.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)+8.5% to < +9.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)00.110.23-9.5%-4.75%0%+4.75%+9.5%Outcome (%)
CurveNFT positionsDensity per percentage point
-0.5% to < +0.5%: 22 NFTs (22.00%)
Overflow< -9.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)≥ +9.5%: 0 NFTs (0.00%)

Drag to move the curve. Drag up to widen, down to narrow.

100 positions for 0.0001 ETHRounding difference: 2.36%

Positions (100)

RangeYour curveNFTsYour positions
< -9.5%0.02%00.00%
-9.5% to < -8.5%0.03%00.00%
-8.5% to < -7.5%0.07%00.00%
-7.5% to < -6.5%0.16%00.00%
-6.5% to < -5.5%0.40%11.00%
-5.5% to < -4.5%0.98%11.00%
-4.5% to < -3.5%2.35%22.00%
-3.5% to < -2.5%5.37%55.00%
-2.5% to < -1.5%11.03%1111.00%
-1.5% to < -0.5%18.44%1919.00%
-0.5% to < +0.5%22.29%2222.00%
RangeYour curveNFTsYour positions
+0.5% to < +1.5%18.44%1919.00%
+1.5% to < +2.5%11.03%1111.00%
+2.5% to < +3.5%5.37%55.00%
+3.5% to < +4.5%2.35%22.00%
+4.5% to < +5.5%0.98%11.00%
+5.5% to < +6.5%0.40%11.00%
+6.5% to < +7.5%0.16%00.00%
+7.5% to < +8.5%0.07%00.00%
+8.5% to < +9.5%0.03%00.00%
≥ +9.5%0.02%00.00%

Example only. No positions are minted.